ACROSS FAMILIES/ Research design
Scenario planning
Explore plausible futures for decisions now
Scenario planning constructs multiple plausible futures to examine strategic uncertainty, challenge assumptions and test decisions. Approaches include qualitative intuitive logics and more model-based variants. Scenarios are not predictions by default, and assigning probabilities requires a separate rationale. In research, the construction process, evidence and evaluation of practical contribution need to be documented.
WHEN IT FITS
Use where long-term uncertainty makes a single forecast brittle and decision makers can examine alternative drivers, implications and actions using credible contextual evidence.
Strengths
- Broadens consideration beyond a single expected future
- Connects uncertainty to options, vulnerabilities and signposts
Limitations
- Plausibility can reflect dominant participants' assumptions
- Vivid narratives can be mistaken for evidence of likelihood
Know the boundary
Scenarios are conditional explorations, not forecasts with validated probabilities.
USED ACROSS
Banking & financeBusiness & MBAComputer scienceEducation