Delphi technique
Develop judgement through structured rounds
Delphi is a structured process of expert elicitation using repeated questionnaires, controlled feedback and usually anonymity between panel members. Classical Delphi often begins with open elicitation; modified versions may start from literature-derived statements or use different meeting arrangements. Prespecified definitions of agreement and stopping rules distinguish a transparent Delphi from a loosely repeated survey.
Use for developing priorities, competencies or considered expert judgements where evidence is incomplete, a relevant panel can be recruited and repeated participation is feasible.
Strengths
- Reduces some dominance effects of face-to-face meetings
- Makes changes in judgement and remaining disagreement visible
Limitations
- Panel selection determines whose expertise counts
- Attrition and pressure towards convergence can distort results
Know the boundary
Consensus is a property of this panel and procedure, not proof of factual truth or future forecasting accuracy.